Tesla could add billions in revenue by entering the trucking market, analyst says
A high-tech Tesla semi truck could garner great in revenue just by capturing a tiny part of the country’s trucking market, based on one analyst.
As the automaker is already quite busy focusing on the launch of its Model 3 or more and the growth of its solar plus energy storage business, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas says the announced entry into electric autonomous semi trucks makes “a large amount of sense — maybe even more feeling than passenger cars. ”
In a research note released Thursday, Jonas laid out a few theoretical scenarios showing how Tesla can enter the industry as a manufacturer, something provider or both.
In one case, Tesla could turn into a truck manufacturer. If it can market about 25, 000 trucks annually, Jonas estimates the company could include $2. 5 billion in yearly revenue just by capturing 10 percent from the total U. S. new pickup truck market. That would be worth about just as much as selling 70, 000 Model several cars at base prices, he or she noted.
Jonas, that has written before about Tesla’s possible to enter the shared car marketplace, also said Tesla’s move might be about building a service business.
For example , the automaker can sell trucks without batteries (lowering initial costs) and then offer a battery pack swapping service. (Tesla has, actually started a battery swapping pilot program because of its cars, as a faster alternate to charging, however the company has not spoken much about this lately. )
That will business could bring $7. five billion in revenue, Jonas stated. His estimates come a few days right after Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted which the company will unveil the Tesla semi in September , across the time the Model 3 should really enter volume production.
The automaker’s anticipated entry directly into semis could also be a boon intended for trucking companies. Jonas estimates a good autonomous electric version could conserve them 60 percent to seventy percent over conventional trucks, because of lower fuel, maintenance and insurance charges. If Tesla were to lease electric batteries at $0. 25 per distance, Jonas estimates it would cut costs meant for truckers in half.
It could, of course , require a hefty investment. Jonas estimates Tesla would have to spend regarding $1. 7 billion in funds upfront to supply both the trucks as well as the battery swap infrastructure.
Jonas is not the only analyst which predicts Tesla’s truck business might be big. On Wednesday, Piper Jaffray analyst Alex Potter reduced truck manufacturers Paccar and Cummins , partly due to the potential threat from your Silicon Valley car maker.